Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Guide to Al Qaedas Network Structure
Manual for Al Qaeda's Network Structure Additionally observe: Al Qaeda pioneers The Al Qaeda Network A few associations may have operational connections to Osama receptacle Ladens center gathering. Progressively, be that as it may, bunches swearing faithfulness to Al Qaeda have no conventional affiliation whatever. While numerous examiners utilize the allegory of showcasing to portray Al Qaeda as a brand, and its branches as establishments, others depict the decentralization wonder as far as a center gathering of experts, encompassed by new enrollment in grassroots subsidiaries. This decentralization is an outcome of methodology, not mishap, as per expert Adam Elkus. In 2007, he composed that: Al Qaeda has been moving towards decentralization since the time the intrusion of Afghanistan, with disengaged cells and inexactly partnered bunches that have just a questionable association with the more prominent Al Qaeda chain of command taking advantage of Some of these knock-off gatherings spring from previous aggressor bunches focused on some rendition of Islamist change of their general public. In Algeria, for instance, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb is another manifestation of another gathering, the Salafist Group for Call and Combat, which has had a long, and rough, responsibility to ousting the Algerian government. The gatherings abrupt responsibility to Al Qaeda-style worldwide jihad ought to be thought about while taking other factors into consideration or, in any event, analyzed considering its neighborhood history. Al Qaeda-center association: The first gathering headed by Osama canister Laden and Ayman al ZawahiriAl Qaeda in Iraq: An association established after the U.S. intrusion of Iraq, AQI has transformed a few times since.The Egyptian Islamic Jihad (Tanzim Al-Jihad): Egyptian Islamic Jihad was established during the 1970s, and notable for its death of Egyptian President Sadat in 1981. It is a genuine case of an association that has verifiably had a far more noteworthy enthusiasm for vicious change of the Egyptian government than it has in a worldwide jihad.Ansar Al Islam: This Iraqi Kurdish association was established in 2001, and works in the northern regions of Iraq and Iran. Its participation incorporates various individuals who prepared or battled in Afghanistan, with receptacle Laden, and it is dared to have close operational binds with Al Qaeda in the region.Al Jemaah Al Islamiyya: Al Jemaah Al Islamiyyah (The Islamic Group) is a southeast Asian gathering committed to bringing Isla mist rule to the region. The United States associates it with binds to Al Qaeda, however these appear to be shaky for a huge scope. Lashkar-I-Tayyiba: This Kashmir-based Sunni Pakistani gathering has verifiably coordinated its assaults at India. Pioneers and individuals have exhibited connections to some Al Qaeda members.Al Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb: This Algerian gathering became out of one devoted to the oust of the Algerian government. Its name change was joined by a promise to place Western focuses in its sights.Abu Sayyaf: This Philippine gathering has been called an Al Qaeda subsidiary, however there is little proof of an important operational tie. Undoubtedly, the association is more similar to a criminal system than one perpetrated to an ideological objective.
Saturday, August 22, 2020
Self Assessment Paper Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words
Self Assessment Paper - Essay Example 1). Consequently, the ramifications of this score on oneââ¬â¢s future business where directors have faith in principle Y is that they could structure inspirational procedures that would engage representatives like me to work with legitimate acknowledgment and affirmation. Individual Values The best three individual qualities were distinguished in these regions with the accompanying scores: family (200), social (200) and scholarly (200). The least close to home estimation is profound (70). These demonstrates how I respect these qualities are principal in oneââ¬â¢s life. The ramifications of this is pivotal in the association where I would be a piece of to adjust time spent for work and family life, just as in social and scholarly undertakings. Bigotry for Ambiguity My score for this appraisal is 52. The imply that was noted in the translation was really 49; in this manner, the score that I created was in reality somewhat higher than the mean. This could show a higher resistance for uncertainty or a marginally high dominance for unsafe undertakings or diving into the obscure. The ramifications of this is future associations could tap my eagerness and capacity to adjust and change in accordance with tempestuous circumstances; all things considered, I am not handily influenced or cheapened confronting difficulties and afflictions. Two-Factor Profile My MF score is 40; while my HF score is 30. This implies I respect more noteworthy significance on persuading or fulfilling factors than in cleanliness or disappointing variables as indicated by Herzbergââ¬â¢s two-factor hypothesis (Schermerhorn, Osborn, Uhl-Bien, and Hunt, 2012). This additionally implies work content is more essential to me than work setting. The ramifications of this outcome is that directors should concentrate on inspirations through occupation content in the event that they need to impact or rouse workers like me. Your Personality Type The score that was produced for this evaluation is 35. This is demonstrative of a Type A character which was depicted to be rushed and serious. The ramifications of this as one is an individual from an association is that my character type should supplement that of others; in any case, if all individuals from the association are altogether serious, there could be expanded strain to display a specified degree of execution that could be upsetting and amazingly testing. Time Management Profile My score for this evaluation is 4. As demonstrated, the higher the score, the closer oneââ¬â¢s conduct coordinates the suggested time the executives rules. In such manner, one unequivocally accepts that my score means that the need to enhance time the board to correspond with those recommended by the association or organization that one would in the end serve. Week 2: Are You Cosmopolitan? My score in this evaluation is 23. This implies I am inside the blended direction (between being showing a cosmopolitan direction and a neighborhood direction) or one displaying and distinguishing a lifelong calling and that of an utilizing association. In this way, the suggestion is that being at mid-point, I could expect the two inclinations and direction that the two limits clearly show.
Wednesday, August 19, 2020
Ideas, Formulas and Shortcuts for What to Say in a College Essay
<h1> Ideas, Formulas and Shortcuts for What to Say in a College Essay </h1> <h2> What to Expect From What to Say in a College Essay?</h2> <p>Mention by name certain classes, teachers, clubs and exercises that you're eager to be a part of. Discover a way to clarify why this specific school inside this specific city calls to you. The paper is the place to permit the confirmations office of your planned school get the chance to comprehend your character, character, and the gifts and capacities that aren't on your transcript. It's pivotal show your ability to be a far reaching onlooker of the Earth, since that will be one of your chief occupations as a school student.</p> <p>Don't imagine you have the last truth. In the event that Greek life intrigues you, at that point you should do your examination and address the associations before thinking about the favorable circumstances and weaknesses. In any case, when you fulfill these understudies, you could be enjoyably astonished to realize what Greek life is about. </p> <p>Your magazine will most likely be sent dependably. The games paper is unsurprising and should be kept away from, assuming there is any chance of this happening. In this occasion, you're endeavoring to make yourself essential to an affirmations official that has been perusing a great many various papers. What's most inquisitive concerning the school article is that a ton of the points on this rundown (those which ought to be maintained a strategic distance from) additionally happen to be the absolute most every now and again utilized themes out there.</p> <p>It draws in an expanding number of students to gain low-spending articles from the internet. Indeed, even little youngsters realize what it requires to succeed. Thus, a lot of understudies purchase school articles. Today, all undergrads, any place they originate from in the planet, need to create papers on a standard premise. </p> <p>These associations will be the skeleton of your article. Subsequently, in the event that you start with a horrible subject, not exclusively will you end up with a poor article, yet you chance demolishing the awesome impression that the rest of your application makes. Precisely as is valid with perusing abstract works, the more exposition papers you read, the more you'll begin to understand what you like and don't care for. </p> <p>Advice from The most fundamental piece of your exposition is the subject issue. Understudies are regularly asked to clarify the explanation behind what reason they need to find out about a particular school or scholarly field in these supplemental papers, which are typically shorter than the most significant article. Diagram useful sorts of coach remarks formative. Try not to reorder the specific paper for each and every school. </p> <p>While it's irritating, beginning once again is now and again the perfect way to deal with discover an article that you're truly satisfied with. For instance, a great deal of the achievement of your exposition is reliant upon how well you can catch the peruser's eye directly in the start of the paper all together for the peruser can't resist the urge to wish to have through the rest of the article. Since the chief purpose of the exposition is to give schools a sentiment of what your identity is, you must open up enough to permit them to see your character. All you've reached must be in a situation to settle on the custom-made paper report on the web is to present your undertaking to your specific basically composing staff individuals, and you have to get the best short article for extremely sensible cost. </p> <h2> What to Say in a College Essay Is - and What it Is Not</h2> <p>Now you have to filter through the entirety of your notes to find the three to five things that genuinely address you. To begin conceptualizing a subject thought think about these focuses. Every now and then, in any event, when you're expounding on an intriguing, applicable subject, it's as yet conceivable to look juvenile or unready for school life by virtue of the way where you present that point the manner in which you truly compose your very own announcement. Regularly models can be deciphered from multiple points of view, and it's your activity as a creator to illuminate how precisely your model is related with the rest of the activity. </p> <h2>The Do's and Don'ts of What to Say in a College Essay </h2> <p>Teaching assistantships offer you generous charge reductions. Schools wish to perceive what you're keen on and how you expect to progress in the direction of your points. Evaluations do make a difference You could simply require the credit, however the evaluations can keep you from taking various classes you need. </p>
Thursday, August 13, 2020
The 5 Biggest Factors That Affect Your Credit Score
The 5 Biggest Factors That Affect Your Credit Score Your credit score is a very important number. It helps lenders to determine your likelihood of paying back debt.This means that you are unlikely to get a loan if you have a poor credit score.Aside from determining whether you get approved for loans, you credit score also determines how much interest you will pay for the loans.Various types of lenders depend so much on this number, which typically ranges between 300 and 850.Credit card companies, mortgage bankers and auto dealerships are example of lenders that will typically check your credit score before approving your loan.Lately, landlords, utility companies and insurance companies have also started looking at your credit card to help them gauge your likelihood of making the required payments.Your credit score is not a static number.It is calculated based on the information in your credit file, which means that the number keeps changing as your financial profile changes.Unfortunately, many people have no idea what affects their cr edit score.Knowing the factors that affect your credit score is important because it gives you the opportunity to improve your score, which in turn means better access to loans and lower interest on these loans.While there are a number of credit scoring models that might be used to calculate your credit score, they all try to do the same thing â" use the information in your credit file to determine your likelihood of making payments on time, or even making the payments at all.As such, whether a lender uses FICO, VantageScore, or any other credit scoring method, and though there might be a slight variation on your credit score depending on the scoring model used, they all basically look at the same information.Typically, there are five major factors that affect your credit score.Of these five, some have a more significant impact on your credit score than others.Below is a breakdown of the five biggest factors that affect your credit score. PAYMENT HISTORYThis is the most important f actor when it comes to calculating your credit score.When using the FICO credit scoring model, which is the most commonly used by lenders, your payment history makes up 35% of your total credit score.The idea behind the payment history is that your past long term behavior is a good predictor of your future long term behavior.In other words, someone who has consistently made all their payments on time in the past is more likely to make future payments on time, while someone who has regularly made late payments or missed some payments is more likely to do the same in future.Therefore, even missing a single payment can negatively impact your credit score.When using your payment history to calculate your credit score, the following factors are considered:Have the bills for each account on your credit report always been paid on time? Late payments have a negative impact on your credit score.For late payments, how late were you in making the payment? Generally, late payments are considere d in 30 day periods, with the impact of the missed payment increasing the longer the payment remains unpaid. Therefore, a 90 day late payment will have a greater impact on your score than a 30 or 60 day late payment.If you have missed payments on your credit file, when was the last time the entry was made, and how frequently have you missed payments? Someone who missed a payment four years ago is considered to be less risky than someone who missed a payment six months ago. Similarly, someone who has only one missed payment on their record is less of a risk than someone with several missed payments.Have you ever had any of your accounts taken to collections? Potential lenders treat this as a red flag that you might not pay back the loan.Have any bankruptcies, foreclosures, charge offs, liens, attachments, debt settlements, wage garnishments, law suits, or public judgments been brought against you? If you have any such items in your public record, they are treated by most lenders as r ed flags of your inability to pay a loan.When checking your payment history, FICO monitors installment loans, such as student loans and mortgages, as well as revolving loans, such as credit cards.Owing to the importance attributed to payment history, one of the most effective ways of improving your credit score is to make sure that you consistently make your payments on time.CREDIT UTILIZATIONAfter payment history, the next major factor that affects your credit score is your credit utilization â" the percentage of available credit that you have actually borrowed.Credit utilization accounts for 30% of your total credit score.When it comes to credit utilization, less is better for your credit score.People who get very close to or who max out their credit limits are considered to be irresponsible at handling debt, and are therefore considered to be a greater risk.Your credit utilization ratio is calculated by dividing the total revolving credit you currently have by the total of all t he credit limits you are allowed to borrow.The credit utilization ratio gives lenders a glimpse into how reliant you are on debt.When using your credit utilization ratio to calculate your credit score, the following factors are considered:How much have you borrowed compared to your total available credit? The aim here is to have as little debt as possible. However, this does not mean that having zero debt will automatically result in a higher credit score. While less is better, having some level of debt shows that you are comfortable with borrowing and that you are responsible when it comes to paying back borrowed money.How much have you borrowed on specific types of accounts, such as installment accounts, auto loans, mortgages and credit cards? Ideally, having a mix of different types of credit is considered as a sign of someone who can responsible manage debt. We will take a more detailed look at credit mix later.What balance do you currently owe compared to the initial amount bor rowed? Once again, less is better.According to FICO, people with high credit scores usually have an average credit utilization ratio of 6% or less and an average of 3 accounts carrying a balance.Most also typically owe less than $3000 on revolving accounts.However, this does not mean that you also need to have a credit utilization ratio of 6% or less in order to have a good credit score.However, most lenders consider borrowing more than 30% of your available credit as a red flag, so it is advisable to keep it below 30%.You might have noticed that payment history and credit utilization are the most important factor when it comes to calculating your credit score.These two factors make up for 65% of your total credit score.Therefore, simply paying your bills on time and having only a small balance on your credit accounts are all you need to have a good credit score.The remaining factors help move your credit score from good to great.LENGTH OF CREDIT HISTORYMost scoring models will also take into account the amount of time you have been using credit when calculating your credit score.The longer your credit history, the more financial information lenders have about you and the easier it is for them to come up with a more accurate picture of your long term financial behavior.The length of credit history makes up 15% of your total credit score.When using your length of credit history to calculate your credit score, the following factors are considered:For how long has each of your accounts been open?How old is your oldest account?For how long have you had obligations?What is the average age of all your accounts?What length of time has passed since your most recent action in your accounts?The longer your credit history, the more likely you are to have a higher credit score, provided your credit history is not blemished by missed payments and other negative items.This is why it is advisable to leave your credit card accounts open even if you no longer use them.The age of the accounts helps give your score a boost.On the other hand, closing your oldest account can result in a decline in your overall score.You should also avoid opening several new accounts at once, since this can lower your average credit age and in turn lower your credit score.Donât despair if you have a short credit history.Provided you donât miss any of your payments and you maintain low utilization ratios, it wonât take you long to achieve a high score.For those without a credit history, you can improve you credit score by taking advantage of credit.NEW CREDITYour credit score also takes into consideration the number of new accounts you have applied for in the recent past and the last time you opened a new account. New credit makes up 10% of your total credit score.However, donât be in a rush to take lots of new credit thinking that it will help improve your credit score.On the contrary, taking lots of new credit within a short period of time might suggest that you are in financial trouble, which in turn makes lenders consider you to be a great risk.Therefore, you should only apply for new credit as needed, not as a way of improving your credit score. You might be wondering how lenders will know that you recently applied to new credit.Normally, when you place an application for a new line of credit, the potential lender will put in a request for your credit information.This is referred to as a hard inquiry, also known as a hard pull. These hard pulls reflect on your credit information.Having hard inquiries on your credit file will often result in a small and temporary decline in your credit score.This is different from a soft inquiry, which does not negatively impact your score.A soft inquiry happens when you access your own credit information.Having several hard inquiries on your credit file negatively impacts your credit score because it signifies that you have applied to several lines of credits within the recent past and might therefore be exp eriencing cash flow problems, which makes you a greater credit risk.To understand how hard pulls work, letâs assume a situation where you apply for financing from an auto dealership.Before approving your loan, the car dealership will request for your financial information.If they realize that you have recently applied for several new credit card accounts, this could be a signal that you intend to go on a spending spree in the near future, which might make it difficult for you to afford the monthly installments the dealership initially assumed you could comfortably afford.This might make the dealership to rethink their decision of selling you the car on credit. It is good to note that the FICO model, which is the most commonly used, only looks at the new credit you have taken within the previous 12 months, so you donât have to worry about hard pulls that occurred over a year ago.At the same time, it is advisable to limit the number of times you apply for new lines of credit withi n each 12 month period.Sometimes, especially when you want to purchase a house or a car, you might go rate shopping to find the cheapest financing option available.All the potential lenders you visit will most likely request to check your credit information, resulting in multiple hard inquiries appearing on your file.However, since these hard inquiries are similar and are usually clustered around the same time, they are generally counted as a single inquiry.When similar hard inquiries appear together, the assumption is that you are shopping, rather than planning to buy several homes or cars at once.To make sure that hard inquiries resulting from rate shopping are treated as a single inquiry, it is always advisable to do your rate shopping within a month or less.CREDIT MIXThis is the last major factor that affects your credit score, contributing to the final 10% of your score.Credit mix refers to how diverse your credit accounts are. It is also one of the most overlooked factors by p eople trying to improve their credit score.Credit accounts usually fall into one of two types â" revolving accounts and installment loans.The most common types of revolving credit account are credit card accounts and store accounts. Examples of installment loans include mortgages, car payments, personal loans, and so on.When considering your credit mix, lenders look at both the types of credit accounts you have and the number of accounts of each type that you have.So, why does having diverse credit lines improve your credit score.Having multiple lines of credit sends the message that you have experience managing various types of credit and that you have the financial capability to service your credit.It also helps the lender create a far more accurate picture of your financial status.However, having multiple lines of credit will improve your credit score provided you donât have any missed and late payments on these credit lines.When you donât have any previous debt, lenders don ât have a good idea of how you responsible you are when it comes to managing debt, and therefore they will give greater preference to someone who has demonstrated the ability to responsibly manage debt.Since credit mix only constitutes 10% of your total credit score, not having a particular type of credit wonât really push your credit score down significantly.Still, the more types of credit you have, the less risky lenders will consider you to be, provided you have consistently serviced your current debt on time.This can help move your credit score from good to great.However, like I mentioned in the previous section, donât just take on some unnecessary debt for the sake of improving your credit score. Only take debt when you actually need it.HOW TO IMPROVE YOUR CREDIT SCORENow that you know the major factors that affect your credit score, how can you improve your credit score so that you have better access to loans and lower interest rates on these loans?Before we get into how to improve your credit score, I want to give a disclaimer. Improving your credit score is somewhat comparable to losing weight. If you want to lose weight, you have to patiently exercise and watch your diet over time.The changes take place gradually. The same thing applies to improving your credit score. You wonât see the improvement immediately. It will take some time.Therefore, if you come across anyone promising that they can help improve your credit score with instant results, you should be very wary.With that out of the way, below are some tips on how to improve your credit score.Make sure all your payments are made on time, and if for some unavoidable reasons you canât make the payment on time, try and make the payment within 30 days after the deadline. We already saw that payment history is the largest contributor to your credit score, so you donât want to mess up your payment history by missing payments. If you regularly forget to make the payments on time, set up rem inders through your online banking portal, so that you will receive an SMS or email to remind you to make the payment before the deadline. Alternatively, you can set up automatic payments such that your payments are automatically debited from your bank account into your credit account on the due date.Monitor your credit utilization ratio and ensure that your credit card balances do not exceed 30% of your total available credit.Reduce the amount of debt you owe. Doing this both improves your credit score and gives you a satisfying sense of achievement. However, this can be quite a challenging thing to do, and will need lots of discipline from you. If you feel that your debt has greatly ballooned, the first thing you need to do is to keep the debt from increasing by stopping using your credit cards. From there, create a list of all the credit accounts you have, what you owe for each account and the interest for each. Then come up with a payment plan that allows you to offset the highe st interest debt first, while making minimum payments on the other lines to avoid missed payments.Avoid opening new accounts within a short span of time, since this will lower the average age of your accounts.If you are thinking of making a big purchase that will need you to take a loan, such as buying a car or a house, you should check your credit score several months in advance. This gives you enough time to improve your score before applying for the loan.If you are rate shopping for a specific loan, do it within a short period of time, possibly within less than 30 days. Extending your rate shopping over a long time will result in multiple hard inquiries appearing on your credit file, which will in turn hurt your credit score.If you have trouble making your payments, talk to your creditors or consult a credit counselor. While this will not lead to an immediate improvement in your score, it will allow you to come up with better ways of managing your credit and making timely payment s, which will ultimately increase your score. Note that talking to your creditors about your difficulty making payments will not negatively affect your credit score.WRAPPING UPKnowing the factors that affect your credit score and how to improve your score means you will have an easier time getting approved for loans and better interest rates.While there are many different models for calculating the credit score, most of them will consider the five factors discussed above, and if you focus on improving these factors, you will have a much better credit score.
Friday, August 7, 2020
One of the Most Ignored Systems for Expository Essay Topics University
<h1> One of the Most Ignored Systems for Expository Essay Topics University </h1> <p>You should not make the proposal a long way from the subject. There are heaps of descriptive exposition subjects to choose from. There are a few strategies about how to form a descriptive paper. With us, you'll get top notch expositions that are sure to present to you the absolute best results. </p> <h2>What About Expository Essay Topics University? </h2> <p>Creating interpretive articles is a piece of your center school profession, and that implies you should figure out how to create them appropriately. Clarify why it is you're keen on a particular vocation. Assume your subject is the estimation of mental health care. Third, choosing an interesting point is a basic ability that you should ace to have a high evaluation. </p> <h2> Choosing Good Expository Essay Topics University</h2> <p>Your paper should focus on why schools demand thei r understudies become familiar with an unknown dialect and the manner in which it can truly help in somebody's general improvement. Most center school understudies abstain from meetings to generate new ideas and start scanning for test points at whatever point they get the task. Consider what you could do so as to make your school increasingly excellent. School ought to occur in the nighttimes. </p> <h2>Life, Death, and Expository Essay Topics University </h2> <p>In reality, giving an example in your paper might be down to earth learning experience, and at whatever point your instructor grades you, you are going to know absolutely where you turned out badly which forthcoming bosses won't illuminate you about. You're coordinated to visit the vital's office right away. Henceforth, whenever you are stood up to with the compose my paper issue, you can wager that our certified work force will be on reserve to help you in any capacity they can. </p> <h2> ; Expository Essay Topics University Explained </h2> <p>The article should be composed with the goal that it's routed to a specific hover of people. Interpretive papers flexibly a point by point portrayal or clarification about a particular idea, thought or hypothesis. An explanatory paper is a piece of scholarly composing planned to flexibly clarifications of different things. It is the sort of article that utilizes realities, insights and noted information from solid sources as the technique for giving data, instead of genuine belief on the theme. </p> <h2> Facts, Fiction and Expository Essay Topics University</h2> <p>Once you have chosen your subject, the following stage will be to make a blueprint that rundowns the key thoughts which you will talk about in your paper. At that point the following stage will be to discover progressively about the explanatory paper structure. In the event that you wish to improve the system, you can attempt exerc ises like posting, bunching, freewriting, and addressing. It is conceivable to consistently view descriptive paper models and have a superior perception of how the whole creative cycle is about. </p> <p>The span of the article anyway changes subject to the point and a guide's necessities. Each segment of the arrangement needs a particular capacity. The body of the article will have more information about your important subject alongside your proof with regards to why you believe that your examination is significant. The points of interest of investigation inside the body of the paper frequently empower you to decide all the more accurately the best approach to word your proposal and the bearing you present it in your initial section. </p> <h2> The Expository Essay Topics University Pitfall</h2> <p>When you're doled out to create an informative paper, the absolute first thing you have to know is the best approach to compose it. Actually, it's the most fundamental piece of your article, since it bids to your peruser. At that point you have to concentrate on your peruser. Your peruser will watch all subtleties all through the crystal of your belief syst em. </p> <h2>The Unexpected Truth About Expository Essay Topics University </h2> <p>There are handfuls and many convincing points out there which can be fastidiously investigated, however picking one that you're keen on would assist it with turning into a little piece simpler and progressively fun. Commonly understudies pick a hard point for which they need to lead a mess of examination which anyway makes article composing troublesome. Descriptive paper is a sort of article wherein understudies need to make their point of view on a specific theme by taking the help of other's view regarding the matter. To lay it out plainly, an interpretive article discloses something to a specific gathering of people. </p> <p>Writing is composing whether it is a discourse or an exposition, and in this manner don't worry an excessive amount of in regards to the basic actuality that it is a discourse. Bearings for Writing Think about the importance of encountering a cell phone. Article composing gives bunches of advantages to understudies in the academe. Composing your article without anyone else isn't generally conceivable because of numerous limitations like time crunch, a crisis, and so forth </p>
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